Now that I’m back from South Africa and Zimbabwe, the NFL Draft (only two weeks away) looms large.
Here are my predictions for the biggest day of the NFL offseason:
1. Miami Dolphins- Jake Long (OT, Michigan)
Reports are already circulating that the Dolphins have entered preliminary contract negotiations with Long and Ohio State DE Vernon Gholston. Expect to see Bill Parcells anchor his offensive line with the franchise tackle that Long promises to be. For a while it looked like the other Long in the draft (Chris) would be the top pick, but apparently Parcells sees Jake Long as the beginning of a much needed offensive overhaul for the woeful Dolphins. Still, Parcells could be putting up smoke screens for contract reasons and the other Long could always be his actual target. Don’t put anything past Big Tuna, who would also consider trading down if the right suitor approached him, which I think is unlikely given the lack of a can’t miss talent this year.
2. St. Louis Rams- Chris Long (DE, Virginia)
With Leonard Little not getting any younger, the Rams could use a young talent infusion at the defensive end position. Long has a Hall of Fame NFL pedigree and an impressive motor that never takes a play off. The Giants proved how important creating a good pass rush is in the Super Bowl victory over the Patriots and the league is not likely to forget that lesson any time soon. The Rams are also reportedly high on LSU DT Glenn Dorsey and Ohio State DE Vernon Gholston so they are possible picks in the #2 slot as well.
3. Atlanta Falcons- Glenn Dorsey (DT, LSU)
There will be a lot of pressure on fledgling Falcons GM Thomas Dimitroff to make the sexy pick in Boston College QB Matt Ryan to try and symbolically put the Michael Vick era behind the franchise. But I’m not sold on Matt Ryan as a top three prospect and I’m not sure the Falcons are either. 2008 boasts a relatively weak crop of quarterbacks and had Ryan come out last year I’m not sure he would have made the first round. Dorsey is a mammoth tackle who has the potential to dominate the line of scrimmage and he will fill one of the Falcons’ many glaring needs. Look for the Falcons to consider trading back up into the bottom of the first round to select Louisville QB Brian Brohm if they can, a la the Browns and Brady Quinn last year.
4. Oakland Raiders- Darren McFadden (RB, Arkansas)
It’s true that the Raiders don’t have a true need for a running back, with Dominic Rhodes and Lamont Jordan sharing the roster with 2007 breakout rusher Justin Fargas. But Al Davis gets off on flashy players and the surprising draft day tumble of Adrian Peterson to the #7 slot last year is still being regretted by many of the teams who passed on him. It won’t happen this year. Expect to see McFadden joining last year’s top pick QB Jamarcus Russell wearing the black and silver next season.
5. Kansas City Chiefs- Matt Ryan (QB, Boston College)
I still think this is a little high for Ryan to be picked, but the Chiefs are in a quarterback quandary at the moment and Ryan will provide a fresh start. Trent Green’s heir apparent Brodie Croyle struggled last season and does not appear to be the quarterback of the future he once was thought to be. The Chiefs desperately need to improve their offensive line, but unless Jake Long goes into a freefall they’ll be using this pick on a quarterback and most scouts agree that Ryan is the best available in this draft.
6. New York Jets- Vernon Gholston (DE, Ohio State)
The Jets would have loved to pick up McFadden, but settling for Gholston is hardly settling at all. The defensive end prospect was the buzz of the scouting combine after his impressive performance, which had comparisons being drawn between him and Shawne Merriman. I’m not convinced he’ll become quite the dominant force that Merriman is, but he certainly is a game changer and should help the Jets defense. The crowd at Radio City Music Hall should appreciate this one too.
7. New England Patriots (from San Francisco)- Keith Rivers (LB, USC)
Everyone thinks the Patriots are likely to trade down from this slot to acquire multiple picks. But should they stay put, Rivers would add young talent to a serviceable but aging group of linebackers in New England. Despite still producing on the field, Tedy Bruschi and Junior Seau are in the twilight of their careers and the rich would be getting richer with Rivers. Bill Belichick has never drafted a linebacker on the draft’s first day so if he doesn’t pick Rivers or trade down, look for him to draft a cornerback like Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie to replace the departed Asante Samuel or a tackle (Sedrick Ellis on the defensive side, Ryan Clady on offense.)
8. Baltimore Ravens- Leodis McKelvin (CB, Troy State)
The Ravens suffered a miserable 2007 campaign after injuries derailed Chris McAlister and Samari Rolle and they are hoping never to relive the nightmare again. Because their cornerback situation is suspect, McKelvin makes sense as a rising star on many teams’ draft boards after an eye-opening Senior Bowl performance. The Ravens would snap up QB Matt Ryan in an instant should he take a Leinart-esque plunge, and OT Ryan Clady could be selected as John Ogden’s replacement. But new Ravens head coach John Harbough had a special teams background and McKelvin is an excellent return man, in addition to his skills on defense.
9. Cincinnati Bengals- Sedrick Ellis (DT, USC)
Ellis would fill a huge hole for the Bengals, whose woeful defense has grounded their high flying offense in recent years. Ellis may not fall this far, but if he should the Bengals will have reason to celebrate. Ellis will provide a colossal presence on the line and he is relatively quick for his 308 pound size. Marvin Lewis will likely be praying he lasts through the first 8 teams.
10. New Orleans Saints- Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (CB, Tennessee State)
Rodgers-Cromartie’s draft stock has skyrocketed since the Senior Bowl and the meteoric rise of his cousin Antonio on the Chargers squad certainly doesn’t hurt. But he appears to be the real deal and the Saints will relish the opportunity to improve a defense that held them back from building on their 2006 success. If the Patriots don’t snag Keith Rivers, then he could also be an option here.
11. Buffalo Bills- Devin Thomas (WR, Michigan State)
My hometown Bills are in dire need of a tall target to line up alongside top WR Lee Evans for second-year QB Trent Edwards to find, especially in red zone situations where the Bills struggled last year. Thomas may be somewhat of a one year wonder, but he has quickly risen to the top of most team’s receiver draft boards and he has the size and speed to complement the Bills’ offense. Originally it looked as though Oklahoma WR Malcolm Kelly would be the choice for this slot, but he followed up a disappointing workout by blaming his school’s softer field choice for costing him draft money, selfish comments that will likely turn off the character conscious Bills. The Bills could also choose to go for a cornerback like Rodgers-Cromartie if he’s still available here, as they never really replaced Nate Clements and they face Randy Moss twice a year.
12. Denver Broncos- Ryan Clady (OT, Boise State)
The Broncos are feeling the pressure of two back to back seasons sans playoffs, something that doesn’t happen often in the Mile High City. Now that OT Matt Lepsis is retired and Ryan Harris has yet to prove he can handle the key position, the Broncos have left tackle on the mind. They will jump at the chance to select Clady if he is still available at the 12th slot. If he’s gone, which is quite possible, Denver could opt to select OT Jeff Otah or OG Branden Albert instead. A wide receiver like DeSean Jackson is not out of the question, with the departure of Javon Walker and Brandon Marshall’s idiotic arm injury this offseason.
13. Carolina Panthers- Branden Albert (OG, Virginia)
The Panthers also have a large gap to fill at offensive tackle since franchised Jordan Gross appears unlikely to land a long term deal with the team. Also Carolina would like to move Travelle Wharton inside to left guard, making tackle a priority to address. The Panthers are high on Clady and may make a move to jump up and grab him, but if they stay put they’ll choose between Albert and Jeff Otah. Although Albert played guard for most of his college tenure, his speed and size combination has many NFL scouts certain he can transition to tackle seamlessly in this league. Carolina head coach John Fox is on the hot seat this year and the Browns proved how much of a difference an impact tackle can make with Joe Thomas. Illinois RB Rashard Mendenhall is also an option, as is a defensive end prospect like Derrick Harvey to create a pass rush since Julius Peppers seemed to be a shadow of his former self in 2007.
14. Chicago Bears- Rashard Mendenhall (RB, Illinois)
The Bears face a number of pressing needs on the offensive side of the ball, where playmakers are sparse and blocking is questionable. The latter issue has convinced many scouts that they will select an offensive tackle like Jeff Otah from Pittsburgh, believing that their anemic offense will not improve until the line blocking for it does. They could very well go that route. But with a lack of speedy playmakers and the increasing indications that Cedric Benson is a colossal first round bust, it will be very difficult for the Bears to pass on a hometown sensation like Mendenhall. Mendenhall is a tough runner who bolstered his excellent junior year with respectable performances at the scouting combine. If they are scared off from drafting a running back this high after the Benson debacle, Otah is the likely pick here. There is a slight chance the Bears may select a receiver to replace the departed Bernard Berrian and Muhsin Muhammad, but I think it’s more likely they address that position later in the draft.
15. Detroit Lions- Jeff Otah (OT, Pittsburgh)
The Lions’ selection is very conditional on what the Bears do with the 14th selection. If they go the offensive tackle route with someone like Otah or Albert, then I feel the Lions will not be able to resist snapping up Mendenhall, who would provide an instant starting upgrade to their lackluster backfield. But since this mock draft assumes Chicago gives into that temptation first, look for the Lions to strongly consider improving their offensive line. A big, physical tackle like Otah will help protect QB Jon Kitna so he can better reach his bevy of receivers and encourage greater production from the position, as well as open up holes for Tatum Bell. If they are sold on a a running back, then Oregon product Jonathan Stewart would not be a bad call. Defensive end is another possibility here, most likely Derrick Harvey should the Lions choose to go down that road.
16. Arizona Cardinals- Jonathan Stewart (RB, Oregon)
The Cardinals believe they are moving in the right direction on offense, but Edgerrin James has hardly lived up to the hype in Phoenix. While there is also a pressing need for a cornerback, they should be able to lock a decent one up in the second round. Meanwhile, Stewart is an eye-opening talent who sports a coveted combination of size and speed. His ability to catch out of the backfield will help QB Matt Leinart (or Kurt Warner) in the passing game and he will provide a much needed spark to the Arizona running game. I don’t buy that his recent toe surgery will hinder his game. CB Mike Jenkins is a possibility here if he’s still on the board, but Stewart seems to be the better choice at the 16th spot.
17. Minnesota Vikings- Derrick Harvey (DE, Florida)
Even before it was revealed that Kenechi Udeze would likely miss the 2008 season to battle leukemia, the Vikings had their eye on adding a pass rusher who could help a weak unit where no player had more than five sacks on the season. Harvey is a top flight DE prospect and should provide an immediate boost to the Vikings defense. Minnesota may also consider taking a look at a quarterback here such as Louisville’s Brian Brohm, but head coach Brad Childress appears to be sold on Tarvaris Jackson as the opening day starter. Count on the Vikings going defense early in this draft, especially if they manage to swing a trade for Texans backup QB Sage Rosenfels on draft day.
18. Houston Texans- Aqib Talib (CB, Kansas)
The Texans’ secondary could really use some help. The season ending injury sustained by Dunta Robinson exposed the lack of depth at the all-important cornerback position. When you’re in the AFC South and trying to catch up with the Colts, allowing Peyton Manning to have his way with your defense will not get the job done. Talib is a great prospect with the potential to be an excellent starting corner on the NFL level. They could also go for South Florida’s Mike Jenkins here. If Stewart or Mendenhall drop to #18, the Texans will certainly be tempted to grab one of them since Ahman Green is far from a long term solution to their rushing game.
19. Philadelphia Eagles- Malcolm Kelly (WR, Oklahoma)
Now that it’s confirmed that Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb will be back heading up the Eagles after they directed Philly to three season ending wins, Philadelphia is going to do everything it can to put McNabb in a position to succeed. The quarterback has been vocal about the team’s need for more offensive weapons and Kelly would provide a big, tall receiver that should be what the doctor ordered for the Eagles in the red zone. Depending on whether a trade involving Lito Sheppard goes down, the Eagles could decide to address the cornerback position here. But they already bolstered their secondary with the Asante Samuel signing, so I think a wide receiver like Kelly or Limas Sweed (if the Eagles are wary of adding another WR with potential character issues after the T.O. debacle) makes the most sense here.
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Mike Jenkins (CB, South Florida)
The Bucs need some cornerback help after the loss of Brian Kelly and head coach Jon Gruden is familiar with Jenkins, who played his home games in Tampa Bay’s stadium during the college season. The Bucs chose to go defense in the first round last year with Gaines Adams and they may continue that trend this year, even though Gruden is considered an offense-minded coach. But don’t count the Bucs out on selecting a quarterback or a wide receiver with this pick. They are reportedly high on the strong-armed Joe Flacco out of Delaware and Brian Brohm could also be tempting to the quarterback collector that Gruden is. DeSean Jackson would also fit nicely in Tampa Bay’s system due to the yards he provides after the catch.
21. Washington Redskins- Calais Campbell (DE, Miami (FL))
Campbell seems the likely choice in Washington because his strengths would be a great fit for the Redskins system and he was coached in college by Joe Palermo, the current Redskins defensive line coach. Some teams see him as a bit of a risk and while his combine numbers were not stellar, his size is still his strongest selling point (6′7, 290 lbs). The second most likely option would be a big wide receiver like Texas’ Limas Sweed, who would probably appeal to owner Dan Snyder a bit more than a defensive end pick. The Redskins need a big target for QB Jason Campbell alongside Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El, so Sweed could provide that if the ‘Skins are favoring offense in the first round.
22. Dallas Cowboys (from Cleveland)- Felix Jones (RB, Arkansas)
The Cowboys have two first round picks in this year’s draft, courtesy of last year’s Brady Quinn trade with the Browns. Assuming the Pacman Jones trade goes through and owner Jerry Jones doesn’t decide to deal both picks in an eleventh hour bid for Darren McFadden, I expect him to select a running back and a wide receiver with the two picks. The first will be McFadden’s teammate Felix Jones, who was somewhat overshadowed by McFadden’s star power but is a great runner in his own right who will complement started Marion Barber now that Julius Jones is a Seahawk. Should the Jones deal falter though, expect the Cowboy’s to swiftly address the cornerback position.
23. Pittsburgh Steelers- Gosder Cherilus (OT, Boston College)
With the departure of longtime offensive guard anchor Alan Faneca to the Jets in the offseason, the Steelers have a clear need to address at the offensive line position. While Pittsburgh would have loved hometown Jeff Otah or Branden Albert to drop to them, Cherilus has the tools and talent to become a starting NFL right tackle and he is the final remaining consensus first round lineman prospect on the boards at this point. He would allow the Steelers to move Willie Colon to guard, as a replacement for Faneca. But QB Ben Roethlisberger has lobbied for a large wide receiver this offseason so Texas’ Limas Sweed is also a possibility at the 23rd spot.
24. Tennessee Titans- Limas Sweed (WR, Texas)
The Titans are in desperate need of a #1 wide receiver, with Roydell Williams leading the team in receiving yards last season. Nothing against Williams, who is a solid player, but he’s more suited for #2 receiver duties. After letting WRs Drew Bennett and Bobby Wade walk after QB Vince Young’s 2006 Pro Bowl breakout season, Young took a major step back last year with a lack of reliable targets. Reuniting Young with his former Texas teammate Sweed, a big, fast receiver who can be a game-changer, appears to be a no-brainer. Sweed will help the Titans in the red zone and ease the constant pressure on Williams and Justin Gage that kept the Titans from achieving their full potential in 2007.
25. Seattle Seahawks- Dustin Kellar (TE, Purdue)
After losing out on the Alge Crumpler sweepstakes to the Titans, the Seahawks have a relatively large need to fill in giving QB Matt Hasslebeck a pass-catching tight end that can make a difference on offense. The ‘Hawks still see their Super Bowl window as open and a player like Kellar, who can contribute in the passing game right away, makes sense from that perspective. If Jonathan Stewart were to somehow fall this far, I could envision Seattle selecting him to share time with newly signed Julius Jones in order to replace Shaun Alexander, who will probably be cut before the season starts.
26. Jacksonville Jaguars- Kentwan Balmer (DT, North Carolina)
The Jaguars made a strong postseason showing last year, beating the Steelers on the road and matching the Patriots score for score until the second half. But while they have revamped their receiving game with the additions of Jerry Porter and Troy Williamson this offseason, their defense has taken some hits. The most notable of these was the trade of monster defensive tackle Marcus Stroud to the Buffalo Bills in exchange for draft picks. While the trade could end up benefiting both teams involved, the Jags have a hole to fill on the defensive line. Balmer is a strong, penetrating tackle that should make his presence known alongside Jonathan Henderson on the defensive side of the ball. Jacksonville may also elect to go for a defensive end like USC’s Lawrence Jackson because their insufficient pass rush was one of the main reasons they were not able to keep up with the Patriots in the playoffs.
27. San Diego Chargers- Kenny Phillips (FS, Miami (FL))
Because the Chargers’ roster features such an abundance of talent, they can afford to try and target the best player left on their draft board without being tied down to any pressing needs. They could use a starting caliber free safety to play alongside 2007 second round pick Eric Weddle and Phillips is a great prospect for the position who did not originally appear would be available this late in the first round. This is the Chargers’ only draft pick in the first four rounds so they need to make it count. Another option would be USC OT Sam Baker to replace Shane Olivea, the former starting right tackle cut by the Chargers this offseason.
28. Dallas Cowboys- DeSean Jackson (WR, California)
The Cowboys would love to insert Jackson into their already potent offense as a slot receiver and return man to provide QB Tony Romo with a third option besides Terrell Owens and Terry Glenn. Jackson is a speedy burner that could excel without the pressure of having to be a team’s #1 or #2 wide receiver from opening day forward. However, if the Cowboys cannot swing the Pacman Jones deal, I think they have to select a cornerback with this pick (if not the 22nd) such as VT’s Brandon Flowers.
29. San Francisco 49ers (from Indianapolis)- Mario Manningham (WR, Michigan)
Despite adding WRs Isaac Bruce and Bryant Johnson through free agency, the 49ers realize that 2008 is going to be a make or break year for former first overall pick QB Alex Smith, who is fighting off the bust label in San Francisco. In order to give him the best chance at succeeding this year, he needs all of the offensive weapons he can get. The 49ers clearly didn’t think they would be picking 7th overall when they traded their top pick to New England last year and it must be painful to pick this low in 2008 after the nightmare season they endured. Manningham is an excellent possession receiver whose draft stock has slipped a bit because of his 40 time, but he is the kind of player that plays faster than he is. If he goes to the Niners, I think he’ll make a bigger impact next season than Bruce or Johnson will. Indiana’s James Hardy is also an option here.
30. Green Bay Packers- Brandon Flowers (CB, Virginia Tech)
Green Bay has a formidable duo of cornerbacks in Al Harris and Charles Woodson, but they are not getting any younger and the Packers lack any serious depth behind them. Flowers is a fantastic coverage man, who some scouts think may be the best in the draft, and it’s surprising that he will have lasted this long. The Packers can get an immediate impact out of him by inserting him into the secondary as a nickel back while grooming him to eventually succeed whichever of their starters gives out first. Other drafts also speculate that Green Bay may want to trade down from this pick, likely fielding offers from teams interested in QB Brian Brohm (Falcons?).
31. New England Patriots- Pick Forfeited
The Patriots had to forefeit the 31st overall pick in the draft as punishment for violating the league’s rules in the Week 1 SpyGate episode. Losing a first round pick will always hurt, but the true impact of this punishment is lost on the slippery Patriots, who made a shrewd trade with the 49ers on draft day last year. The Patriots figured that the Niners were assuming that they would be better in 2007 than they were. The Pats were right, San Fran sucked, and now the team that went 18-1* ends up with a Top 10 draft pick. And people wonder why they are hated so much…
32. New York Giants- Dan Connor (LB, Penn State)
The Super Bowl champions have an obvious hole to fill at the outside linebacker position, where former starter Kawika Mitchell departed in free agency for the Buffalo Bills and Mathias Kiwanuka appears better suited to move to defensive end as Michael Strahan’s eventual heir apparent. Dan Connor is the latest in a long line of solid Penn State linebacker prospects and should plug the hole very effectively. Tennessee LB Jerod Mayo is also an option here, should the Giants feel that he has more upside than the ready-to-play Connor.
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